While testing the Activity log, I removed and added back credentials.
This seems to tell the UI that this site is just now being set up and originates a couple of problems:

This is because after re-entering creds, the Rewind state is provisioning. At this point, Rewind actions like restores and backups aren't available.
A quick fix for the notice is to update the copy so instead of "We're currently backing up your site for the first time" it says something simple like "We're creating a backup of your site".
However this should be addressed in the Rewind state machine and I wrote a post about it in p9rlnk-ei-activitylogrewind
@dmsnell fixed this in D11668