When upgrading from 2.8.x to 3.0.0-alpha3 (latest nightly) I was able to get to this step:

Then, when clicking next, I was presented with the following error:
Fatal error: require_once(): Failed opening required '/var/www/html/core/model/modx/modcachemanager.class.php' (include_path='.:/usr/local/lib/php') in /var/www/html/core/components/admintools/services/admintools.class.php on line 633
So it appears to be the AdminTools extra which uses a require_once to a file that has been moved (modcachemanager.class.php) in 3.x
Upgrade to 3-alpha with AdminTools installed (or another extra that references a file in the same way)
The install had effectively completed so I was able to remove the extra manually (in the db) and complete the setup.
Extras should not be able to prevent the setup from completing.
MODX 2.8.1 --> 3.0.0-alpha3, nginx, PHP 7.4, Mysql 8.
Would love some input from @opengeek on this as well, but my impression is that the setup should probably not try to load extension packages or plugins in any way.
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Would love some input from @opengeek on this as well, but my impression is that the setup should probably not try to load extension packages or plugins in any way.