Both old and new presences always appear to be identical.
bot.on('presenceUpdate', (oldMember, newMember) => {
console.log('old:');
console.log(oldMember.user.presence);
console.log('new:');
console.log(newMember.user.presence);
});
gives this:

You need oldMember.presence, not oldMember.user.presence
Most helpful comment
You need
oldMember.presence, notoldMember.user.presence